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The Demography =
of
an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates
for Britain’s Royals, 1500-1799
*Stanford University & All Souls
College, Oxford
**Cambridge Group for the History of
Population and Family Social Structure, Cambridge University
***<=
span
class=3DSpellE>Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (=
Rome)
Abstract
=
span>
This
paper details the statistical sources, methods and findings that underpin t=
he
demographic evidence offered by Johansson (2010) in support of her thesis
regarding “Europe’s first knowledge-driven mortality
transition,” namely the pronounced and sustained rise in the expectat=
ions
of life that took place among the 17th and early 18th=
century
birth cohorts of members of Britain’s royal families. The consequent
interest in exposing the existence of systematic demographic effects of cha=
nges
in the medical treatments and healthcare regimens received by this elite ma=
kes
it germane to establish the statistical significance of a particular patter=
n of
inter-cohort changes in the royals’ mortality experience – name=
ly,
one whose timing and age- and sex-specificity make it plausibly attributabl=
e to
the historical improvements in the medical knowledge and practice of their
doctors, as has been documented by Johansson (1999, 2010). Complete
genealogical data for the members of Britain’s royal families born c.
1500 – c.1800, due to Weir (1996), permits construction of cohort life
expectancy at birth and at age 25 for royal males, royal females, as well as
for the small number of male monarchs, their female consorts and the queens.
Inter-cohort comparisons of life table mortality schedules are obtained by
using the 5-year average survival rate distributions for the successive bir=
th
cohorts to estimate for each cohort the parameters of Anson’s (1991)
general model of age-specific mortality hazard rates – the empirical
probability of dying within 5 years of age x, conditional on having
survived to that age. A variety of tests show the gross changes of interest=
to
be statistically significant. The discussion contrasts the mortality transi=
tion
among the royal families’ members with the contemporaneous demographic
experience of rural and urban segments of the English population at large. =
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