Abstract
The
Malthusian “preventive check” mechanism has been well documented for preindustrial
England
through evidence for a negative correlation between the marriage rate and the
price of wheat. Other literature, however, speculates that the correlation was
in fact positive from the early nineteenth century. This paper uses the cointegrated VAR model and recursive estimation techniques
to document the changing relationship between nuptiality
and the price of wheat from 1541–1965. The relationship is indeed positive from
the early nineteenth century to the First World War. A simple theoretical model
shows that this result is not in fact inconsistent with a stylized Malthusian
mechanism, and can be understood within the context of an increasing dominance
of shocks to aggregate demand rather than to aggregate supply.
JEL
Classifications: J1, N3