Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Bent Nielsen
Author-Workplace-Name: Nuffield College, Oxford
Author-Email: bent.nielsen@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Author-Name: María Dolores Martínez-Miranda
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
Author-Name: Jens Perch Nielsen
Author-Workplace-Name: Cass Business School, London
Title: A simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain
Abstract: Background: It is of considerable interest to forecast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available.
Methods. We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age-cohort specification and a multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies. 
Results. The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model.The former performs slightly better in out-of-sample comparison.
Conclusion. Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark
that forecasts just as well as more complicated models. 
Length: 5 pages
Creation-Date: 2016-06-06
Number: 2016-W03
File-URL: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2016/MartinezMirandaNielsenNielsen_AsbestosBenchmark.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:1603