Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Roberto Bonfatti
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Nottingham
Author-Name: Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke
Author-Workplace-Name: All Souls College, Oxford
Title: Growth, Import Dependence and War
Abstract: Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may
choose to launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot credibly
commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who launched a
war against the West in 1941, not the West that pre-emptively attacked Japan. Similarly,
many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet World War I erupted at a time of
unprecedented globalization. This paper develops a theoretical model of the relationship
between trade and war which can help to explain both these observations. Dependence
on strategic imports can lead follower nations to launch pre-emptive wars when they are
potentially subject to blockade.
X-Classification-JEL: 
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Length: 70 pages
Creation-Date: 2014-09-08
Number: _132
File-URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/papers/13387/bonfatti-orourke-working-paper.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_132