Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: David Hendry
Author-Email: david.hendry@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Author-Homepage:http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/people/hendry.htm 
Author-Workplace-Name:Nuffield College, Oxford University
Author-Workplace-Homepage:http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/nuffield.html
Author-Name: Michael P. Clements
Author-Email: m.p.clements@warwick.ac.uk
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Author-Workplace-Name: Dept of Economics, University of Warwick
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Title: Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research
Abstract:
  This paper describes some recent advances and contributions
  to our understanding of economic forecasting.  The framework
  we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions
  and the prevalence of forecast failure.  It constitutes a general
  theoretical background against which recent results can be judged.
  We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was
  silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster.  We
  describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, and draw out
  the implications for model selection.  Finally, we discuss the
  areas where research remains needed to clarify empirical findings
  which lack theoretical explanations.
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Length:27 pages
Creation-Date: 2001-10-08
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Number:2002-W11
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File-URL:http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2002/w11/DFHMPCLessons.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
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Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0211