Abstract
Electoral politics in India shows distinctive regional patterns of party competition, with a complex interaction between outcomes at the National and State level. Despite the weak federalism of the Indian Constitution, this party-political fractionalization has resulted in an effective electoral federalism, with the power of the centre constrained through the influence of regional parties and State governments. Such electoral diversity has emerged despite the presence of traditionally strong and centrist political parties, and a plurality electoral system associated, through Duverger's Law, with a two-party system. This research project explores the relationship between institutional structure and patterns of socio-economic politicization, looking at the development of party competition at the regional level. This work brings together three main strands of political analysis: regionalism and multi-level electoral politics; the institutional influence of electoral systems; and the political sociology of party mobilization. It should provide wider understanding of the relationship between patterns of socio-economic identities, regionalism, and the nature of political representation.
Context and Research Objectives
Since the 1970s, Indian electoral politics has been seen to have been transformed from a one-party dominant system to an amalgam of regional and national party competition. However, this transformation has occurred within the context of a stable institutional structure, with no change in the fundamental characteristics of the Constitution or electoral system. The combination of institutional stability and a dynamic party-political system provides the scope for a comparative study of developments within India. Such a study should be important in the wider application of political science, providing a framework for broader comparative study, testing theories of institutional effects on party competition, and generating new evidence regarding the relationship between social cleavages and party mobilization.
The study of Indian democratic politics has tended to focus on either National or local and State level politics. In the former case, a tendency to treat the country as a homogeneous polity has under-emphasized much of the regional complexity, whilst localized treatments have limitations in explaining more general patterns of change. This research project seeks to clarify the relationship between electoral outcomes and developments at the National and State level, using the analysis of aggregate and survey data of socio-economic characteristics and political effects. This extends the research programme which underpinned my doctoral thesis, which studied the theory and practice of group representation by looking at the measures taken to improve the electoral influence of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in India.
This research programme would be structured by looking at a series of discrete, but interconnected themes, and applying to each a similar methodological framework. Bringing together these separate themes would then give a coherent conceptualization of modern Indian democratic politics, relating this to broader theories and insights from the political science literature. Research questions will be tested using quantitative analysis based on aggregate and survey data describing Indian electoral and social change. Most of this data has been collected and analysed as part of my DPhil Thesis, and includes aggregate data on Indian elections from 1952 to 2002; National and State Election Surveys carried out by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) between 1970 and 1999; and Indian Census data. I intend to continue to collaborate with CSDS in order to collect and analyse more survey data from forthcoming elections.
The five basic themes of this research proposal are set out below
(1) The changing pattern of regional politics in India To determine whether the changing number of parties competing at a regional level is due to the emergence of regional patterns of voting, using aggregate measures to map the changing pattern of regional voting, and the extent to which State-wise voting follows a national trend.
(2) First- and Second-Order electoral politics Using data on turnout and the orientation of voters' towards National and State politics to determine which is seen as most important, and whether this has changed over time.
(3) Duverger's Law and party competition Examining the extent to which a multi-party system is based on constituency-level voting behaviour or through aggregation effects. Examining the impact of tactical considerations and political knowledge on voting behaviour.
(4) Socio-economic influences on voting behaviour The extent to which socio-economic identity (particularly class, caste, and religion) shapes voting behaviour, and how this varies at a regional level.
(5) The electoral dynamics of regional politics Bringing together the previous four themes, to give an overview of the structural and individual determinants of regional variations in electoral politics.
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