Abstract of "Does One Soros Make a Difference?  A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders" by Giancarlo Corsetti, Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin

                                              (PDF file)

Do large investors increase the vulnerability of a country to speculative attacks in the foreign exchange markets? To address this issue, we build a model of currency crises where a single large investor and a continuum of small investorssimultaneously decide whether to attack a currency based on their private information about fundamentals. In the unique equilibrium of this trading game, the presence of the large investor does, indeed, make all other investors more aggressive in their selling. Relative to the case in which there is no large trader, small investors attack the currency at higher values of the
fundamentals. Yet, the difference can be small, or null, depending on the  relative precision of private information of the small and large investors. A large but relatively uninformed speculator makes little difference for the design of the optimal strategies by the rest of the market.

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