Lechene, Valerie: Economic and Demographic Determinants of the Time to Smoking Cessation
World Conference Econometric Society, 2000, Seattle

Jerome Adda, UCL and INRA
Valerie Lechene, University of Oxford
Economic and Demographic Determinants of the Time to Smoking Cessation
Session: C-11-9  Tuesday 15 August 2000  by Lechene, Valerie
Governments in most Western countries are under increased pressure to control the consumption of cigarettes and other goods which present health risks. Aside from coercive regulations bearing either on supply or on demand, regulation goes through the channels of indirect taxation and information campaigns. The relative efficiency of these policies, as well as the redistributive effects of taxation depend on the individual determinants of smoking. Yet, the manner in which individual consumption varies through the life cycle and its responsiveness to economic variables and health changes are not well known. In analyzing smoking behaviour, the economic literature stresses the addictive aspect of consumption and neglects its interaction with health. Yet health, and particularly future health, is a major determinant of smoking. To evaluate the relative importance of health and price changes, we use a 16 year panel of cigarette consumption and health in Sweden. We analyze life cycle patterns of consumption by cohort and calculate price and income elasticities conditional on health, as well as investigating the impact of health changes on the duration of smoking. The time to quitting is related to economic and demographic determinants. The relative effects of price increases, changes in current and future health and other demographic determinants are evaluated.

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